Week Four

I'm recovering from a Root Canal, so just the picks today. I'll come back Friday with commentary and additional thoughts.

Introduction to the Picks for first-timers: Each game is listed, and the spread shows in parenthesis after the team listed as the favorite. Spreads are usually taken from usatoday.com on Tuesdays. At the end of each narrative, you'll see my selection for "Straight" and "Spread." My Straight selection is my pick of the game winner, and my Spread selection is my pick of the winner, plus or minus the points. I indicate my strongest confidence in "BET" picks. It is important to understand that I believe only the BET picks are worth truly engaging. In the final analysis, I will rate my own success or failure by my BET pick overall record. Lastly, I offer a "Suicide Pool" pick (in red) and the weekly parlay/teaser at the end of the column.


Arizona at Atlanta (-7.0)
Straight: Atlanta
Spread: Atlanta (BET)

Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee
Straight: Tennessee
Spread: Tennessee

Indianapolis (-9.0) at NY Jets
Straight: Indy
Spread: Indy

Miami (-3.5) at Houston
Straight: Houston
Spread: Houston

Minnesota at Buffalo (-1.0)
Straight: Minny
Spread: Minny

New Orleans at Carolina (-7.5)
Straight: Carolina
Spread: New Orleans

San Diego (-2.5) at Baltimore
Straight: San Diego
Spread: San Diego

San Francisco at Kansas City (-7.5)
Straight: Kansas City
Spread: San Francisco

Detroit at St. Louis (-5.5)
Straight: St. Louis
Spread: St. Louis

Cleveland (-2.5) at Oakland
Straight: Cleveland
Spread: Cleveland (BET)

Jacksonville (-3.0) at Washington
Straight: Washington
Spread: Washington (BET)

New England at Cincinnati (-6.5)
Straight: New England
Spread: New England

Seattle at Chicago (-3.5)
Straight: Chicago
Spread: Chicago

Green Bay at Philadelphia (-11.0)
Straight: Philly
Spread: Philly
Suicide Pool Pick

Week 3's Early Games

Watching those games was agonizing in the fourth quarters. My picks were blowing up in my face. The Steelers, in control and rattling Carson Palmer, fumbled twice in their own end to give up the game. The Vikings, in control all day, gave up a wide open touchdown in the final minute. And Carolina nearly lost it in the second half.

So far I'm 3-3-2 officially. But I'm thanking my lucky stars that when I made my big Vikings bets (one individual and two parlays) that I was getting 4.5 points. Nice! My week rides on the Patriots slamming the Broncos in ugly ways.

Team we may have undervalued: the Jets. Going on the road and beating the team everyone was paying notice to... that's pretty big. Could they be a sneaky 8-8 team? Chad Pennington looks solid.

And as the late games are underway, what's the story with Charlie Frye? He chooses the Ravens' defense to have his breakout game against? 15 for 18 for 210, accounts for two TD's and has Baltimore in the sack going into the second half. Wow. Not that I valued Baltimore as much as everyone else did, but still.

Week Three Picks

As I try to bounce back from an abysmal start to my handicapping year, I'd like to play the role of Roy Williams. I hereby guarantee that I'll post a winning BET record this week. The great thing about the Roy Williams guarantee is that my actual results don't matter. I can claim I was right even if I was wrong. Neat how that works, isn't it?

There are a lot fewer double digit games this week, and the Raiders are not involved anywhere. In the end, the only games I'm feeling strong about are games that some of you might not even feel comfortable betting straight up. For one, my special team to bet against this year is Denver, who won't be anywhere near last year's team. I think we're all seeing that so far.

Enough of the general stuff, let's get to the picks.

Introduction to the Picks for first-timers: Each game is listed, and the spread shows in parenthesis after the team listed as the favorite. Spreads are usually taken from usatoday.com on Tuesdays. At the end of each narrative, you'll see my selection for "Straight" and "Spread." My Straight selection is my pick of the game winner, and my Spread selection is my pick of the winner, plus or minus the points. I indicate my strongest confidence in "BET" picks. It is important to understand that I believe only the BET picks are worth truly engaging. In the final analysis, I will rate my own success or failure by my BET pick overall record. Lastly, I offer a "Suicide Pool" pick (in red) and the weekly parlay/teaser at the end of the column.


Carolina (-3.0) at Tampa Bay
This is as good as a guarantee, but I am breaking my own rule: Never bet against a home team underdog playing a divisional game (see the 49ers last week). In this case, the rule gets thrown out. Carolina needs to save its season; a loss here, and they are done, period. Tampa's in the same boat, but they've been playing so poorly there's little chance they can salvage anything. I like the Panthers, and I like them by two scores.
Straight up: Carolina
Spread: Carolina (BET)

***PICK OF THE WEEK***
Chicago (-3.0) at Minnesota
I love it when the first two games off the board are ones I feel good about. I'll tell you out of the gate, I like Minnesota. On ESPN.com, over 81% of their readers think Chicago will win this game. That's an overwhelming majority, and it also tells me how many of you will buy into my pick. Allow me to bring you along using your own thinking...

Let's say that Chicago is a Super Bowl team this year, just for speculation's sake. They'll win 12 or more games, but still lose a few. If they are Super Bowl quality, do they still beat their strongest division foe, a valid playoff team in their own right, on the road? I remember back to Green Bay's Super Bowl season. They came out of the gate 4-0, crushing their opponents by lopsided scores. That team was clearly on its way. Then they played the Vikings in Minnesota, with everyone picking the Pack to win.
Straight: Minnesota
Spread: Minnesota (BET)

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-2.0)
The Steelers will bounce back, out of need. The Bengals will be charged up for the champs, but they can't stop the run like Jacksonville can. Big Ben won't have a deer in the headlights look going on either, at least that's what I'm assuming. The Steelers truly need Ben playing well to have the season I'm expecting from them.
Straight: Pittsburgh
Spread: Pittsburgh

Green Bay at Detroit (-6.5)
Your Honor, I submit the following evidence that proves the mental instability of my client. Mr. Williams stated on several ocassions that the score of an NFL game does not matter, even given a guarantee of a win. Considering that, technically, nothing else in the NFL really matters, the evidence is overwhelming. My client's mental state, therefore, should not count against ngruk's preseason prediction that this is a playoff team.
Straight: Detroit
Spread: Detroit

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7.0)
The Jags will certainly give Indy fits this year. I think they proved that Monday Night. They're built specifically to challenge Indianapolis. But this game is a classic case for a Monday Night letdown. They played a physical, hard-nosed game vs. Pgh, and now they've got to immediately deal with the speed of the Colts, in Indy. Not cool.
Straight: Indy
Spread: Indy

NY Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)
Buffalo has certainly impressed in its opening two games. Actually, so have the Jets. Chad Pennington is on fire, and the Bills' defense is strong. In other words, I have no read. I'll take the team no one seems think can pull it off.
Straight: Jets
Spread: Jets

Tennessee at Miami (-11.0)
I'm not sure Miami has earned these kind of points. They were disastrous in their home opener and haven't shown the fight of a team supposedly pushing for a divison title. Daunte Culpepper... well, he hasn't had a Pro Bowl performance since he had... Randy Moss to throw to. As for the Titans, where has Jeff Fisher gone? Why won't he play Vince Young? Tennessee won't be the team I'm thinking they are until he's in there.
Straight: Miami
Spread: Tennessee

Washington (-4.0) at Houston
There's not an interesting thing I could say about this game. Unless I played the sportswriter's card: blah, blah, Mario Williams, blah, blah, Reggie Bush.
Straight: Redskins
Spread: Redskins

Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
While Baltimore might seem like a lock here, I still hate betting on the road team in a divisional game. It's just not smart business. That said, I'll stay away in the BET department and be free to say what I really think. The Ravens aren't as good as the results of their first two wins. The Browns will not go away quietly, and this will be a tough, physical football game. Steve McNair on the two-minute drill to win it?
Straight: Baltimore
Spread: Cleveland

NY Giants at Seattle (-3.5)
The Giants are riding high, higher than anyone else sitting at 1-1. It really takes a whole team coming together to pull off a comeback like last week's win over the Eagles. The Hawks are 2-0 and don't have near the confidence. They're just trying to get on track. I see the Giants pulling off the upset, like they should have last year when their kicker went into the tank.
Straight: Giants
Spread: Giants

Philadelphia (-6.0) at San Francisco
After last week, all bets are off with the Eagles. They'll need to string together several weeks of solid play before I'm feeling good about them as my Super Bowl team again. Frisco has been frisky and will probably be better than anyone imagined (six wins would suffice in that department). This means they're not push-overs. And against an emotionally unstable squad like the Eagles right now? I'll take Philly, but very lightly. My advice to you: DO NOT take Philly as your suicide pool pick. Personally, I'm hoping everyone in my pool does.
Straight: Eagles
Spread: Eagles

St. Louis at Arizona (-4.5)
Every year there are a couple of teams that are so random in their performances that you can't make sense of anything they offer week to week. Last year, we had the Chiefs, the Dolphins and the Cowboys. They're good, and then they're bad (the Fins, remember, beat Denver opening week and then later in the year were shut out by the Browns. How do you get a read on that?). And I'm guessing that both of these teams will be random this year. The Cards should have the edge here, just as the spread implies, you couldn't pay me to bet this one.
Straight: Cards
Spread: Cards

Denver at New England (-6.5)
Tom Brady's pissed off that the team isn't playing well. A lot of players are quietly grumbling that Deion Branch got stiffed. And Bill Belichick can't even refer to Eric Mangini by name. There's a lot of anger management in the Patriots clubhouse lately. Watch them take it out on Jake Plummer and the hapless Broncos. If you're worried about this one, just ask yourself this: if the Broncs can't get in the end zone against the Chiefs, what will they do against the Pats?
Straight: NE
Spread: NE (BET)
Suicide Pool Pick: NE

Atlanta (-3.0) at New Orleans
I can't decide on this one. The Saints have the emotion, the charge, everything in terms of momentum and a huge home game on their side. But the Falcons have finally decided to throw out the concept of Vick passing and play the wishbone. It's working and no one's solved it yet. I'm sure it'll get pummelled against a good D with a scheming coach, but vs. the Saints? Don't ask me, I'm picking the Saints because I'm rooting for them.
Straight: New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans

Weekly Parlay/Teaser: If you can take the Pats, Vikes and Panthers in a three team teaser and even get a few more points, that'd be a great way to go. I could also be talked into a teaser that substitutes one of those teams for Indy, if there are fewer points to be given up, or Tennessee if the points rose to 14 or more.

Review - Week Two

I got crushed in Week Two. Destroyed. First time I've gone 0-4 in BET picks in years. I'm getting my Week Two review out of the way even before Monday Night because I want this week out of my system NOW. It wasn't pretty at all.

And I know what I did. I was a little to anxious to see the teams I expect to rise this year, rise NOW. Developing teams who make advancement usually do so in the latter half of the season. Think back to Miami last year. They were 3-7, and then hit stride with six straight wins to end the year. A good team, but really only in the last part of the year. I'm expecting that kind of year out of Detroit and Tennessee, but it won't happen early. If they manage 2-4, the upswing could come from there.

And that's how the NFL works, too. You can be a bad team for six weeks and still be a playoff contender if you're a solid team for the rest of the year.

So I live and learn. None of you are going to buy into my picks now until I prove myself after this bad week. That's okay by me. Keep coming back and you'll see how it shapes out over time. I've been doing this long enough to know.

Of course, I'm not right about everything with my picks, despite my boldness (I know it's a shock). So, let's look at what, if anything, from the first two weeks has changed my mind...

• One bad fourth quarter and I'm doubting my Eagles pick. A team doesn't easily overcome such a loss.
• Baltimore's swagger might be enough. I still think their offense stinks and they'll suffer for it, but they may squeeze their way into the playoffs in place of my pick of the Titans. I don't have a ton of faith, though.
• I'm kicking myself for deciding upon Detroit over Atlanta as my NFC sleeper. I kept looking at Atlanta's D as potentially dominant, but in the end, I didn't like Mike Vick. We'll see.
• Rex Grossman is the Bear X factor. Who would think of a QB being an X factor??? It's early and they haven't played playoff quality teams yet, but they could make the LEAP this year if that offense is for real.
• Detroit's going to drive me crazy this year.

And what do I think will still hold true in my picks?...

• Minnesota's just getting started as my NFC North pick. They will keep every game close and have all the clutch tools to pull them out.
• Denver's not making the postseason.
• I'm still not buying San Diego just yet. They haven't faced a real test.
• As soon as Tennessee starts Vince Young with full authority to run the offense, they will go on a win streak and he'll look like an early Donovan McNabb - winning with running and athleticism.
• I'm happy I pulled back with the Skins and had them out of the playoffs. They look awful.
• Carolina'll bounce back, but I'm glad they weren't my Super Bowl pick. I didn't think they'd have it, and apparently, they don't.
• Dallas is above average - not Super Bowl caliber - which will get them a wildcard berth.
• Cincy's 2-0 but the tough games are coming now.

One thing's for sure: the defenses are WAY ahead of the offenses in the beginning of this season. Low scoring, a bunch of field goals. Watch for the offenses to begin picking up steam in October...

And a last word:

Is there anything more old than the Terrell Owens stories? The T.O. thing needs to be put to bed... do the networks and ESPN really think that this crap keeps us watching?

But here's what really gets me. He has a horrible game against the Skins. Drops everything. (Yes, I know he had a broken finger, but if it was that bad, he shouldn't have been playing. He hid the thing because he thought he could still catch passes, yes?) He plays horribly and no one talks about that. All they do is feed into the soap opera. Not even John Madden talked about how badly he played. I'd pay good money to see Owens retire - today.

Week Two Picks

Week Two Picks

There are some very interesting games on the slate this week. Perhaps what unfolds will tell us what trends from Week One will hold true and what trends are likely to be seen as "One Hit Wonders." You know, like the Ravens being a Super Bowl contender?

But something is a little fishy this week. There's a LOT of games with a LOT of points. Some of the demolitions in Week One result in Vegas overreactions. Take advantage. In general, remember this is the NFL and the safer bet is to take the points when double digits are involved. Let's get to the picks.

Introduction to the Picks for first-timers: Each game is listed, and the spread shows in parenthesis after the team listed as the favorite. Spreads are usually taken from usatoday.com. At the end of each narrative, you'll see my selection for "Straight" and "Spread." My Straight selection is my pick of the game winner, and my Spread selection is my pick of the winner, plus or minus the points. I indicate strong confidence in "BET" picks. It is important to understand that I believe on the BET picks are worth truly engaging. In the final analysis, I will rate my own success or failure by my BET pick overall record.


Buffalo at Miami (-6.5)
What do you make of Buffalo's near-upset of New England? Buffalo's defense is going to be good - remember they scored 7 of the 17 points they had in that game. But their offense will continue to be weak. Miami has the defensive prowess to hold them off, as long as they shore up a running game that was gouged by the Steelers. Either way, against the spread this is a division game (stay away) and will be close. But how close? Perhaps a five point lead becomes an eight point lead late in the 4th quarter.
Straight up: Miami
Spread: Miami

Carolina (-1.0) at Minnesota
Minnesota's got something going. Winning at Washington was big. Chester Taylor won't be a 1,500 yard back, but he's going to give them consistent yardage. Brad Johnson brings a calm resolve. The whole team has a air of stability and a sense of purpose after last year's debacle.

And then there's the Panthers. Don't they always seem to rise up and strike just when everyone is doubting them? That alone makes them a tough out here. All the talk this week will be "Can Carolina win without Steve Smith?" That fires these guys up, because they always play best with their backs against the wall. This one could go either way, but I'll take the panther backed into a corner over a cool cat.
Straight: Carolina
Spread: Carolina

***PICK OF THE WEEK***
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-10.5)
Carson Palmer's still getting his feet wet. He didn't do a lot against the Chiefs, but he'll feel a little easier at home. Still, the Browns don't figure to be an easy out for many teams this year. Their defense will have the intensity that you'd expect from a Romeo Crennel team, which knows how to disrupt Palmer's game. And Charlie Frye played alright against Cincy last year in one of his first starts. Cincy'll take it, but not walking away.
Straight: Cincinnati
Spread: Cleveland (BET)

Detroit at Chicago (-9.0)
Now that Chicago is rated so highly by Vegas, these points will make life easier all year long. Detroit will go toe to toe with the Bears, and with Jon Kitna behind center, there won't be a lot of defensive returns for TD's. I'll even stick my neck out on the upset.
Straight: Detroit
Spread: Detroit (BET)

Houston at Indianapolis (-13.5)
Something didn't seem right with Peyton Manning vs. the Giants. Maybe it was about playing Eli, but he wasn't sharp. He threw some amazing bullets inbetween defenders, but he also threw two or three interceptions that Giant defenders dropped. I don't like this game, or either of these teams. Houston will score, too.
Straight: Indianapolis
Spread: Houston

New Orleans (-2.5) at Green Bay
Go back one year ago today, the start of the 2005 season, and tell me that the Saints would be favored to win in Lambeau. I'd laugh at you. Even today, I'm not sure it fits or is right. But who doesn't win in Lambeau anymore except... the Pack? Favre looks ridiculous and the Saints are on a high. I honestly think the difference here is all about a rookie playing RB for the Saints.
Straight: New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-3.0)
I'm already upset that Vegas isn't locking Philly into the underdog role. Apparently, they're aware of what everyone else is... Philly's for real. As for the Giants and especially Mr. Coughlin, this'll be a long, long year. I'll give the three.
Straight: Philly
Spread: Philly (BET)

Oakland at Baltimore (-12.5)
Are you kidding me? Baltimore's giving two scores? It just goes to show that no matter how long ago you won the Super Bowl, the media train will always rally around you even if you haven't shown signs of life in the five years since. Now, don't get me wrong, Oakland is bad, really bad. But I'm thinking this kind of game is Ravens 10, Raiders 3.
Straight: Baltimore
Spread: Oakland

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-5.5)
A spread like that only shows that Vegas doesn't have a clue. This will be one of those games where you look back to the previous week and wonder if these are the same teams or not.
Straight: Tampa Bay
Spread: Tampa Bay

Arizona at Seattle (-7.0)
These two will be neck and neck all year long. Considering the nature of the road team in the NFL anymore, I'm tempted to see the split between these two teams come on the road. But Seattle has a boisterous bunch, and Arizona has a new stadium with - suddenly - some fans. Either way, look for a shoot-out, with Shaun Alexander's big day the difference by killing the clock in the end.
Straight: Seattle
Spread: Seattle

St. Louis (-3.0) at San Francisco
This is probably St. Louis' game to win. But there's a cardinal rule in picking winners. Never bet on a division rival favored on the road. Weird things always happen when two teams know each other too well.
Straight: St. Louis
Spread: St. Louis

Kansas City at Denver (-10.5)
I'm not comfortable with these points, but KC is playing Damon Huard at QB. Then again, Denver is playing Jake Plummer at QB...
Straight: Denver
Spread: Kansas City

New England (-5.5) at NY Jets
The Jets are 1-0 ya know. I'm a bit shocked that Vegas has overreacted to the Jets' win and Pats' struggles from Week One. The Pats should obliterate Eric Mangini's squad on their home field. Something Bill Belichick will enjoy very much.
Straight: New England
Spread: New England

Tennessee at San Diego (-11.5)
Here's where you win in the NFL. Tennessee's not this bad and San Diego's not that great. Sure, they can win this game, but it's likely to be a low-scoring, tough fight. Phillip Rivers will throw a couple of picks even though Tennessee puts eight and nine men in the box to slow down Tomlinson.
Straight: Tennessee
Spread: Tennessee (BET)

Washington at Dallas (-6.0)
A few pundits take Dallas as their Super Bowl team and Vegas is all over it. These two teams are evenly matched, folks. It'll be a close one that could go either way.
Straight: Dallas
Spread: Washington

Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars thought they were disrespected in Week One? This spread started with the Jags giving two points. Bettors shook that back Pittsburgh's way. That alone scares me off of this game. It'll be physical, close, and the Steelers should win if Ben Roethisberger is really back and plays with moderate success. So I guess I'm disrespecting the Jags, too.
Straight: Pittsburgh
Spread: Pittsburgh

Explaining My Season Picks

I made my preseason picks and I stand by them. Despite the evidence in Week One of the fall of the Chiefs, Panthers and Cowboys, I still think they'll be in the postseason.

Every year, a few top playoff teams from the previous season fall out of the playoff mix. For some reason, none of the "experts" sees this coming (more on experts later). Usually, the signs are there and shouldn't be avoided. Last year, if you couldn't see Philly's demise coming, you were blind. But none of the big NFL writers online picked them anywhere but in the playoffs again.

Who are this year's candidates for a drop? All the top teams must be considered.

• Pittsburgh. Sure, there's some offseason toil and the real possibility of a Super Bowl hangover. But... they own the running game on both offense and defense and they have a competent QB who might become a Pro Bowler someday. Worst case scenario would be ten wins and a quick out in the playoffs.
• Indianapolis. There's nothing that indicates their regular season success will diminish. Of course, there's nothing that indicates they'll win in the postseason either, especially with a weaker defense.
• Carolina. If they stay healthy, they could be stronger. New depth at running back and defensive line seems to safeguard against the injury problems of the past. Few weaknesses.
• Seattle. The Super Bowl loser hangover is real. This team was still complaining into the preseason about the officiating in last year's Super Bowl. Shaun Alexander has a weaker offensive line, and doesn't have as much to prove as he did last year (he now has media love and a long term contract). They're grasping at straws with a guy like Deion Branch. On top of that, no more cupcake schedule, especially with improved squads with all three NFC West teams. I am confident this is an 8-8 team. With a few breaks, they could win 9 or 10 and the division, but I'm betting against it.
• Denver. Jake Plummer is a wreck. He was never going to lead them to the Super Bowl against a quality defense, unless he had a Baltimore Raven 2000 defense to back him up. Enter Jay Cutler and the future is bright, but not this year.
• New England. With MVP candidate Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, they'll be around and make due with a weakened roster. Playoffs? AFC East Champs? Sure, especially with the Bills and Jets stuck in limbo. Much more? I wouldn't count on it.

After those squads, you have borderline playoff teams that just happened to have the extra luck/push to be ahead of the curve; ahead of say, Kansas City at 10-6. They were not elite last year. Will they be this year? Or is it back to the mediocrity of the non-playoff NFL?

• Jacksonville. Achieved against a cream puff schedule and were walked upon by the Patriots. Much like Seattle, they could pull off 10 wins, but they'll have a tough time doing so. I'm guessing they're 9-7 and a team no one wants to play.
• New York Giants. Everything seems to indicate that they'll be strong again this year, but I'm not convinced their defense is solid enough. Sure they can rush the passer, but what else?
• Tampa Bay. Proving the parity rule, Tampa won the NFC South. One or two lucky breaks with good coaching and defense, and you too can have a home playoff loss. Not looking to see these guys rise above.
• Cincinnati. Their defense is too weak. Carson Palmer will have them scoring, but it won't be enough. Their future is bright, though.
• Washington. They almost had me convinced. I thought early on about picking them to win it all. The preseason offense didn't scare me off, though. It's the bottomline: they have Mark Brunell at QB. That's not gonna do it.
• Chicago. Unlikely to be as strong as last year, where schedule and a weak division opened the door for them. We're all familiar now with the Chicago "surprise and disappear" pattern.

And then there's the middle of the pack, the teams that just missed the playoffs and are looking to bounce back big or fall back with the pack. Which will it be?

• Kansas City. Very good squad last year. If Trent Green comes back to a team that is 2-2, they'll win the division. Not strong enough to join the elite, though. The defense will be improved, finally.
• San Diego. Could Phillip Rivers be this year's Roethlisberger? The possibility is there, and Rivers has LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates to work with. I see a year of development, and then very possibly your 2007 Super Bowl favorite - if Rivers is for real.
• Atlanta. Week One already has everyone back on the Michael Vick bandwagon. Don't buy into it. Their defense is improved, but it won't make up for a one-dimensional offense that can be had by the tough D's in the South.
• Minnesota. Are the ingredients here? Solid coaching? Check. Modest offense that can move the ball and is steady in the clutch? Check. Defense on the rise? Check.
• Dallas. They've improved with Terrell Owens to be just good enough to squeeze into the playoffs like they couldn't last year. But beyond that? Only if Tony Romo is the next Tom Brady (don't hold your breath).

As for the rest of the pack, the goal is to rise above a poor showing and hit the playoffs. For a few, perhaps elite status with is a reachable goal.

• Arizona. That offense will score in the red zone this year. Even if Edgerrin James averages 2 yards per carry, but provides a few TD's, this team will make the playoffs. Their defense will keep them from running away with anything, though. 9 or 10 wins to take the West.
• St. Louis. Maybe I'm missing the boat and the Rams are the West team to beat? Frankly, between Seattle, Arizona and these guys, all of them could have 9 wins at the end of the year.
• Philadelphia. Watch out, Carolina-style. Follow the Panther path: Super Bowl loss, followed by injury-riddled losing season, followed by deep contention in the playoffs. The QB and defense are there. My NFC Super Bowl pick.
• Detroit. Jon Kitna will play his Cincinnati style return and give this team some pep, along with a renewed intensity from their new coach. Count me as sold that they can at least hit a winning record.
• Anyone else ready to jump up and make a play? San Fran, Buffalo, the Jets, New Orleans? No. Certainly not Green Bay, Oakland or Houston. Some flashes of feistiness reside in Cleveland and Baltimore, but not enough.

See my preseason picks for the layout of division winners, playoff teams and my Super Bowl pick.

I like the Steelers to repeat. Why? Solid defense, coaching, running game and a QB with a.) something to prove, b.) vision and competency, c.) leadership. Plus, no one's picking them despite their obvious lack of weaknesses. They don't have a running back to pound in one-yard TD's and this is being played as a problem.

All other elite teams have weaknesses that are too glaring. Indy - no clutch, no defense. Pats - just too thin all around (not like two years ago when it was just at cornerback). Seahawks we've covered. Only Carolina and Philadelphia rate like Pittsburgh does. But neither has the ground game.

Finally, about "experts" and big NFL writers. This much is the case. They can't make predictions that discuss the "fall from grace" of the big teams. Those teams read their articles. Negative press may drive some players to avoid some writers for interviews. That's the only explanation I have for some of the homerism that goes on when writers predict the same old teams every year, even though they know it won't work out that way.

Week One Review

Ah, the curse of Week One has stricken even the most level-headed columnists. SI.com's Peter King announced in his quality Monday Morning QB column that, after an odd Week One, the whole NFL world has been turned upside down.

If only he and others read my blog, they'd know better.

Week One will always be partly an aberration. It's the nature of the game. Many of the real, quality veteran teams are still shaking off the rust from playing half-quarters in the preseason. They're also feeling their way back into the game. Usually, by the end of September, order is restored in some respect.

Want examples? Last year, Carolina, Seattle and Denver looked horrible in Week One and they were three of the NFL's final four.

That's not to say we didn't learn anything about the state of the NFL through Week One. Some things I'd say came out of the mix:

• The Lions will play physical football this year. They may still suck, but they will fight. And that may run out by the time December rolls around if they aren't in the playoff hunt. The point, though, is that Rod Marinelli, their new Head Coach, has instilled some strength and fight in the woeful franchise.
• The Broncos will fall out of contention this year as Jay Cutler cuts his teeth. Unless...
• Kansas City, which was ready for a big-time run this year, could be dead. Without Trent Green or unbelievably, a competent back-up quarterback (did Herm Edwards learn nothing in New York?), the Chiefs' season may be over before it begins. This opens the door for San Diego or Denver to make the playoffs with ordinary seasons.
• Teams who, contrary to popular belief, can't win a title this year with their current QB's: Miami, Dallas, Washington, Denver and Indianapolis.
• The Eagles, despite their weak foe, will contend for the playoffs and the Super Bowl.
• As we expected, there'll be a lot of points and little defense for Arizona and Indianapolis.
• Alex Smith is not done as an NFL QB.
• Pittsburgh isn't going away.
• Tennessee needs to set aside the kid gloves and start Vince Young.
• The Rams will be in the hunt for the NFC West crown until the end of the season. So will Arizona. Seattle's going to face some major difficulties just getting back to the playoffs.
• That hit on Trent Green is going to bring a huge fine. And Cincinnati's perceived "thug" personality gets more fodder.
• The NFC East is not as good as everyone seems to think.

The real question is about what we shouldn't learn from Week One. What are the aberrations? What did we see that wasn't an indication of things to come?

• Tampa will rebound. They will compete for a playoff spot, but fall short. Their offense does need help, though. A playmaker at WR, for instance.
• On the other side of that game, Baltimore won't have it so easy with more competent offenses (say, like Pittsburgh and Cincinnati).
• Jacksonville will not make the playoffs despite their toughness.
• The Jets' winning record will last exactly one week.
• The Panthers always start slow. They'll rebound, but they really need Steve Smith healthy.
• Learn nothing from the performances of these teams, good or bad: San Diego, Baltimore, Tennessee, Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Tampa Bay.

More later when I explain my preseason picks.

Welcome & Season Picks

I hate Week One. You don't make the dough picking Week One.

Welcome to my NFL Picks blog. In this space, you'll read my NFL Picks for every game, every week, with the exception of Week One (more on that later). I could begin to tell you about my prowess in picking games, but that won't mean much to you until I prove myself in a public space. So here it comes.

Each week, I will pick the outright winners of every game, plus the winners vs. the spread. In all the games vs. the spread, I will pick the "BET" games, which indicate games I recommend strongly. BET games are the most important of all picks, and my real prowess in this blog will be based upon my record there.

Now, about Week One. I writing this while watching games in Week One. I never pick Week One games. Trends are not established in Week One and it is the least reliable week in NFL play all year long. A smart player will let Week One pass and then proceed to rule in the future weeks, as Vegas starts to play into trends you can easily work to your favor. Example? Falcons beating the Panthers. Like the Saints beating the Panthers in Week One last year. No trend developed there, did it?

As for my Season Picks, yes, I'm a little late in submitting, as some of the games are past halftime right now. Whatever. My picks are not based on what's happening in the least reliable week of the year.

Division winners
AFC East - Patriots
AFC North - Steelers
AFC South - Colts
AFC West - Chiefs
NFC East - Eagles
NFC North - Vikings
NFC South - Panthers
NFC West - Cardinals

AFC Wildcards - Chargers, Titans
NFC Wildcards - Lions, Cowboys

AFC Championship: Steelers over Patriots
NFC Championship: Eagles over Cowboys

Super Bowl: Steelers over Eagles

Later: My explanation of my picks, why I picked who I picked and why I predicted drops from the playoffs by the Broncos, Bengals, Seahawks, Bears and Jaguars.