Week Two Picks

Week Two Picks

There are some very interesting games on the slate this week. Perhaps what unfolds will tell us what trends from Week One will hold true and what trends are likely to be seen as "One Hit Wonders." You know, like the Ravens being a Super Bowl contender?

But something is a little fishy this week. There's a LOT of games with a LOT of points. Some of the demolitions in Week One result in Vegas overreactions. Take advantage. In general, remember this is the NFL and the safer bet is to take the points when double digits are involved. Let's get to the picks.

Introduction to the Picks for first-timers: Each game is listed, and the spread shows in parenthesis after the team listed as the favorite. Spreads are usually taken from usatoday.com. At the end of each narrative, you'll see my selection for "Straight" and "Spread." My Straight selection is my pick of the game winner, and my Spread selection is my pick of the winner, plus or minus the points. I indicate strong confidence in "BET" picks. It is important to understand that I believe on the BET picks are worth truly engaging. In the final analysis, I will rate my own success or failure by my BET pick overall record.


Buffalo at Miami (-6.5)
What do you make of Buffalo's near-upset of New England? Buffalo's defense is going to be good - remember they scored 7 of the 17 points they had in that game. But their offense will continue to be weak. Miami has the defensive prowess to hold them off, as long as they shore up a running game that was gouged by the Steelers. Either way, against the spread this is a division game (stay away) and will be close. But how close? Perhaps a five point lead becomes an eight point lead late in the 4th quarter.
Straight up: Miami
Spread: Miami

Carolina (-1.0) at Minnesota
Minnesota's got something going. Winning at Washington was big. Chester Taylor won't be a 1,500 yard back, but he's going to give them consistent yardage. Brad Johnson brings a calm resolve. The whole team has a air of stability and a sense of purpose after last year's debacle.

And then there's the Panthers. Don't they always seem to rise up and strike just when everyone is doubting them? That alone makes them a tough out here. All the talk this week will be "Can Carolina win without Steve Smith?" That fires these guys up, because they always play best with their backs against the wall. This one could go either way, but I'll take the panther backed into a corner over a cool cat.
Straight: Carolina
Spread: Carolina

***PICK OF THE WEEK***
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-10.5)
Carson Palmer's still getting his feet wet. He didn't do a lot against the Chiefs, but he'll feel a little easier at home. Still, the Browns don't figure to be an easy out for many teams this year. Their defense will have the intensity that you'd expect from a Romeo Crennel team, which knows how to disrupt Palmer's game. And Charlie Frye played alright against Cincy last year in one of his first starts. Cincy'll take it, but not walking away.
Straight: Cincinnati
Spread: Cleveland (BET)

Detroit at Chicago (-9.0)
Now that Chicago is rated so highly by Vegas, these points will make life easier all year long. Detroit will go toe to toe with the Bears, and with Jon Kitna behind center, there won't be a lot of defensive returns for TD's. I'll even stick my neck out on the upset.
Straight: Detroit
Spread: Detroit (BET)

Houston at Indianapolis (-13.5)
Something didn't seem right with Peyton Manning vs. the Giants. Maybe it was about playing Eli, but he wasn't sharp. He threw some amazing bullets inbetween defenders, but he also threw two or three interceptions that Giant defenders dropped. I don't like this game, or either of these teams. Houston will score, too.
Straight: Indianapolis
Spread: Houston

New Orleans (-2.5) at Green Bay
Go back one year ago today, the start of the 2005 season, and tell me that the Saints would be favored to win in Lambeau. I'd laugh at you. Even today, I'm not sure it fits or is right. But who doesn't win in Lambeau anymore except... the Pack? Favre looks ridiculous and the Saints are on a high. I honestly think the difference here is all about a rookie playing RB for the Saints.
Straight: New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-3.0)
I'm already upset that Vegas isn't locking Philly into the underdog role. Apparently, they're aware of what everyone else is... Philly's for real. As for the Giants and especially Mr. Coughlin, this'll be a long, long year. I'll give the three.
Straight: Philly
Spread: Philly (BET)

Oakland at Baltimore (-12.5)
Are you kidding me? Baltimore's giving two scores? It just goes to show that no matter how long ago you won the Super Bowl, the media train will always rally around you even if you haven't shown signs of life in the five years since. Now, don't get me wrong, Oakland is bad, really bad. But I'm thinking this kind of game is Ravens 10, Raiders 3.
Straight: Baltimore
Spread: Oakland

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-5.5)
A spread like that only shows that Vegas doesn't have a clue. This will be one of those games where you look back to the previous week and wonder if these are the same teams or not.
Straight: Tampa Bay
Spread: Tampa Bay

Arizona at Seattle (-7.0)
These two will be neck and neck all year long. Considering the nature of the road team in the NFL anymore, I'm tempted to see the split between these two teams come on the road. But Seattle has a boisterous bunch, and Arizona has a new stadium with - suddenly - some fans. Either way, look for a shoot-out, with Shaun Alexander's big day the difference by killing the clock in the end.
Straight: Seattle
Spread: Seattle

St. Louis (-3.0) at San Francisco
This is probably St. Louis' game to win. But there's a cardinal rule in picking winners. Never bet on a division rival favored on the road. Weird things always happen when two teams know each other too well.
Straight: St. Louis
Spread: St. Louis

Kansas City at Denver (-10.5)
I'm not comfortable with these points, but KC is playing Damon Huard at QB. Then again, Denver is playing Jake Plummer at QB...
Straight: Denver
Spread: Kansas City

New England (-5.5) at NY Jets
The Jets are 1-0 ya know. I'm a bit shocked that Vegas has overreacted to the Jets' win and Pats' struggles from Week One. The Pats should obliterate Eric Mangini's squad on their home field. Something Bill Belichick will enjoy very much.
Straight: New England
Spread: New England

Tennessee at San Diego (-11.5)
Here's where you win in the NFL. Tennessee's not this bad and San Diego's not that great. Sure, they can win this game, but it's likely to be a low-scoring, tough fight. Phillip Rivers will throw a couple of picks even though Tennessee puts eight and nine men in the box to slow down Tomlinson.
Straight: Tennessee
Spread: Tennessee (BET)

Washington at Dallas (-6.0)
A few pundits take Dallas as their Super Bowl team and Vegas is all over it. These two teams are evenly matched, folks. It'll be a close one that could go either way.
Straight: Dallas
Spread: Washington

Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Jacksonville
The Jaguars thought they were disrespected in Week One? This spread started with the Jags giving two points. Bettors shook that back Pittsburgh's way. That alone scares me off of this game. It'll be physical, close, and the Steelers should win if Ben Roethisberger is really back and plays with moderate success. So I guess I'm disrespecting the Jags, too.
Straight: Pittsburgh
Spread: Pittsburgh