Explaining My Season Picks

I made my preseason picks and I stand by them. Despite the evidence in Week One of the fall of the Chiefs, Panthers and Cowboys, I still think they'll be in the postseason.

Every year, a few top playoff teams from the previous season fall out of the playoff mix. For some reason, none of the "experts" sees this coming (more on experts later). Usually, the signs are there and shouldn't be avoided. Last year, if you couldn't see Philly's demise coming, you were blind. But none of the big NFL writers online picked them anywhere but in the playoffs again.

Who are this year's candidates for a drop? All the top teams must be considered.

• Pittsburgh. Sure, there's some offseason toil and the real possibility of a Super Bowl hangover. But... they own the running game on both offense and defense and they have a competent QB who might become a Pro Bowler someday. Worst case scenario would be ten wins and a quick out in the playoffs.
• Indianapolis. There's nothing that indicates their regular season success will diminish. Of course, there's nothing that indicates they'll win in the postseason either, especially with a weaker defense.
• Carolina. If they stay healthy, they could be stronger. New depth at running back and defensive line seems to safeguard against the injury problems of the past. Few weaknesses.
• Seattle. The Super Bowl loser hangover is real. This team was still complaining into the preseason about the officiating in last year's Super Bowl. Shaun Alexander has a weaker offensive line, and doesn't have as much to prove as he did last year (he now has media love and a long term contract). They're grasping at straws with a guy like Deion Branch. On top of that, no more cupcake schedule, especially with improved squads with all three NFC West teams. I am confident this is an 8-8 team. With a few breaks, they could win 9 or 10 and the division, but I'm betting against it.
• Denver. Jake Plummer is a wreck. He was never going to lead them to the Super Bowl against a quality defense, unless he had a Baltimore Raven 2000 defense to back him up. Enter Jay Cutler and the future is bright, but not this year.
• New England. With MVP candidate Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, they'll be around and make due with a weakened roster. Playoffs? AFC East Champs? Sure, especially with the Bills and Jets stuck in limbo. Much more? I wouldn't count on it.

After those squads, you have borderline playoff teams that just happened to have the extra luck/push to be ahead of the curve; ahead of say, Kansas City at 10-6. They were not elite last year. Will they be this year? Or is it back to the mediocrity of the non-playoff NFL?

• Jacksonville. Achieved against a cream puff schedule and were walked upon by the Patriots. Much like Seattle, they could pull off 10 wins, but they'll have a tough time doing so. I'm guessing they're 9-7 and a team no one wants to play.
• New York Giants. Everything seems to indicate that they'll be strong again this year, but I'm not convinced their defense is solid enough. Sure they can rush the passer, but what else?
• Tampa Bay. Proving the parity rule, Tampa won the NFC South. One or two lucky breaks with good coaching and defense, and you too can have a home playoff loss. Not looking to see these guys rise above.
• Cincinnati. Their defense is too weak. Carson Palmer will have them scoring, but it won't be enough. Their future is bright, though.
• Washington. They almost had me convinced. I thought early on about picking them to win it all. The preseason offense didn't scare me off, though. It's the bottomline: they have Mark Brunell at QB. That's not gonna do it.
• Chicago. Unlikely to be as strong as last year, where schedule and a weak division opened the door for them. We're all familiar now with the Chicago "surprise and disappear" pattern.

And then there's the middle of the pack, the teams that just missed the playoffs and are looking to bounce back big or fall back with the pack. Which will it be?

• Kansas City. Very good squad last year. If Trent Green comes back to a team that is 2-2, they'll win the division. Not strong enough to join the elite, though. The defense will be improved, finally.
• San Diego. Could Phillip Rivers be this year's Roethlisberger? The possibility is there, and Rivers has LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates to work with. I see a year of development, and then very possibly your 2007 Super Bowl favorite - if Rivers is for real.
• Atlanta. Week One already has everyone back on the Michael Vick bandwagon. Don't buy into it. Their defense is improved, but it won't make up for a one-dimensional offense that can be had by the tough D's in the South.
• Minnesota. Are the ingredients here? Solid coaching? Check. Modest offense that can move the ball and is steady in the clutch? Check. Defense on the rise? Check.
• Dallas. They've improved with Terrell Owens to be just good enough to squeeze into the playoffs like they couldn't last year. But beyond that? Only if Tony Romo is the next Tom Brady (don't hold your breath).

As for the rest of the pack, the goal is to rise above a poor showing and hit the playoffs. For a few, perhaps elite status with is a reachable goal.

• Arizona. That offense will score in the red zone this year. Even if Edgerrin James averages 2 yards per carry, but provides a few TD's, this team will make the playoffs. Their defense will keep them from running away with anything, though. 9 or 10 wins to take the West.
• St. Louis. Maybe I'm missing the boat and the Rams are the West team to beat? Frankly, between Seattle, Arizona and these guys, all of them could have 9 wins at the end of the year.
• Philadelphia. Watch out, Carolina-style. Follow the Panther path: Super Bowl loss, followed by injury-riddled losing season, followed by deep contention in the playoffs. The QB and defense are there. My NFC Super Bowl pick.
• Detroit. Jon Kitna will play his Cincinnati style return and give this team some pep, along with a renewed intensity from their new coach. Count me as sold that they can at least hit a winning record.
• Anyone else ready to jump up and make a play? San Fran, Buffalo, the Jets, New Orleans? No. Certainly not Green Bay, Oakland or Houston. Some flashes of feistiness reside in Cleveland and Baltimore, but not enough.

See my preseason picks for the layout of division winners, playoff teams and my Super Bowl pick.

I like the Steelers to repeat. Why? Solid defense, coaching, running game and a QB with a.) something to prove, b.) vision and competency, c.) leadership. Plus, no one's picking them despite their obvious lack of weaknesses. They don't have a running back to pound in one-yard TD's and this is being played as a problem.

All other elite teams have weaknesses that are too glaring. Indy - no clutch, no defense. Pats - just too thin all around (not like two years ago when it was just at cornerback). Seahawks we've covered. Only Carolina and Philadelphia rate like Pittsburgh does. But neither has the ground game.

Finally, about "experts" and big NFL writers. This much is the case. They can't make predictions that discuss the "fall from grace" of the big teams. Those teams read their articles. Negative press may drive some players to avoid some writers for interviews. That's the only explanation I have for some of the homerism that goes on when writers predict the same old teams every year, even though they know it won't work out that way.