Week Seven Picks

Late. Here's the short version before kick off.

Carolina at Cincy (-3.5)
Straight: Carolina
Spread: Carolina

Detroit at NY Jets (-3.5)
Straight: NY
Spread: NY

Green Bay at Miami (-4.5)
Straight: Miami
Spread: Miami

Jacksonville (-8.5) at Houston
Straight: Jax
Spread: Hou

New England (-5.5) at Buffalo
Straight: NE
Spread: NE

Philly (-6.5) at Tampa
Straight: Philly
Spread: Tampa

Pittsburgh (-3.0) at Atlanta
Straight: Pgh
Spread: Pgh (BET)

San Diego (-4.5) at Kansas City
Straight: KC
Spread: KC (BET)

Denver (-4.5) at Cleveland
Straight: Denver
Spread: Cleveland

Arizona (-3.0) at Oakland
Straight: Oakland
Spread: Oakland

Minnesota at Seattle (-6.5)
Straight: Minnesota
Spread: Minnesota

Washington at Indianpolis (-8.5)
Straight: Indy
Spread: Indy

NY Giants at Dallas (-3.0)
Straight: Dallas
Spread: Dallas (BET)

Week Six Picks

Sorry, folks, I've been out of town all week. Here's Week Six, the shortened version, with some minor commentary.

Buffalo (-1.5) at Detroit
Straight: Buffalo
Spread: Buffalo

Carolina at Baltimore (-3.0)
Sorry, Raven fans. This is where the wheels start to come off on the Steve McNair train. Ten bucks says that commentators will still call him the main reason for Baltimore's resurgence, as he works through a 65.0 passer rating and throws more picks than TD's.
Straight: Carolina
Spread: Carolina (BET)

Cincinnati (-5.5) at Tampa Bay
Frisky game. There's a creeping feeling that Tampa has found a real QB in Gradkowski. I've gone back and forth on this one, but decided to go with the team with the week's rest.
Straight: Cincy
Spread: Cincy

Houston at Dallas (-13.0)
Straight: Dallas
Spread: Dallas

NY Giants at Atlanta (-3.0)
Straight: Atlanta
Spread: Atlanta

Philly (-3.0) at New Orleans
There's still a lot of disfunction in Philly, believe it or not. Just exactly how did Dallas score 24 on them while Bledsoe threw three picks? This looks like a trap game, at the high energy Superdome.
Straight: New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans

Seattle (-2.5) at St. Louis
The tides are changing. Seattle's losing streak starts to become a Steeler-like albatross.
Straight: St. Louis
Spread: St. Louis (BET)

Tennessee at Washington (-10.5)
Straight: Washington
Spread: Tennessee

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Straight: Pgh
Spread: KC

Miami at NY Jets (-2.5)
Straight: Miami
Spread: Miami (BET)

San Diego (-9.5) at San Francisco
Straight: San Diego
Spread: San Diego

Oakland at Denver (-14.5)
Straight: Denver
Spread: Oakland
Suicide Pool Pick: Denver

Chicago (-10.5) at Arizona
Straight: Chicago
Spread: Chicago

T.une O.ut

That's what I'm calling this week: T.une O.ut Week. As I peruse the world wide web and gobble up articles about the NFL, if the article is about the T.O. drama, I'm not reading it.

Care to join me in my boycott? Further, I promise that this particular player will not get a single mention again in my blog, until (if) his team reaches the playoffs. Can we focus on football and not on the soap opera?

Week Five Picks

Last week, I had a root canal, and didn't have the energy to write much. And I had a great week, going 9-5 overall vs. the spread and 3-0 in BET picks. I'm wondering... should I just shut up and pick? I guess we'll see, because for right now I have some things to say about a very intriguing week in the NFL.

If my picks suck this week, I'll just shut up and pick. On to this week's games...

Introduction to the Picks for first-timers: Each game is listed, and the spread shows in parenthesis after the team listed as the favorite. Spreads are usually taken from usatoday.com on Tuesdays. At the end of each narrative, you'll see my selection for "Straight" and "Spread." My Straight selection is my pick of the game winner, and my Spread selection is my pick of the winner, plus or minus the points. I indicate my strongest confidence in "BET" picks. It is important to understand that I believe only the BET picks are worth truly engaging. In the final analysis, I will rate my own success or failure by my BET pick overall record. Lastly, I offer a "Suicide Pool" pick (in red) and the weekly parlay/teaser at the end of the column.

Buffalo at Chicago (-10.5)
Chicago exists right now as the front runner. Nobody in the NFL looks more impressive, it's not even close. And yet, after a big win against their only division threat and a huge statement game against the reigning NFC Champs, might this particular match up scream of let-down game?
Straight: Chicago
Spread: Buffalo (BET)

Cleveland at Carolina (-8.5)
Well, I guess splits is the strategy. It sure worked last week. Cleveland is not playing like a pushover, and Carolina is not playing like a front runner. That could change this week, but I expect this to be a touchdown game that has fourth quarter implications.
Straight: Carolina
Spread: Cleveland

Detroit at Minnesota (-6.5)
My revenge against my sleeper pick, the Lions. I won't be picking them for awhile (which, obviously means they'll start winning).
Straight: Minnesota
Spread: Minnesota

Miami at New England (-9.5)
The Patriots have a tendency to play close games, no matter the opponent. The one game that got out of hand was last week vs. the Bengals. The Pats had a late touchdown lead and it turned into a laugher when Cincy crumbled under pressure and gave up the ball a couple of times. Now, imagine a similar scenario, with Daunte Culpepper on the road. Give the points.
Straight: New England
Spread: New England (BET)

St. Louis (-2.5) at Green Bay
The Rams might get to 4-1 before we know very much about them. But I'm not sure that's going to happen. In two road games, they lost to San Fran and should have lost to Arizona. Green Bay appears to have some fight in them, and they will win this game with the first hints of cold weather creeping into Lambeau.
Straight: Green Bay
Spread: Green Bay (BET)

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-6.5)
Don't bet on this game, people. It's tempting, I know. But, consider. First time starting QB's, who are completely unknowns, can go either way. They can shine and shock everyone, or they can be dismal. Think Kurt Warner. How did his first start go? On the flip side, how did Koy Detmer's first start go? Don't remember? Neither do I.
Straight: New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-18.5)
The sheer number of points is messy. It could be a 24 point game and Indy gives up a garbage time TD with 2 mins left. Are you willing to bet on that? Neither am I.
Straight: Indianapolis
Spread: Tennessee
Suicide Pool Pick: Indy

Washington at NY Giants (-4.5)
No explanation, I'm just feelin' this one. The Skins, remember, were a popular Super Bowl pick before they mailed in the preseason and first two games.
Straight: Washington
Spread: Washington (BET)

Kansas City (-3.0) at Arizona
I try not to overthink these games. The Chiefs are the better team and the boos should be loud in that new Cardinal Stadium. It's Matt Leinart's first start. Maybe he'll shock the world, but I'm thinking the Chiefs' D frustrates him.
Straight: Kansas City
Spread: Kansas City

NY Jets at Jacksonville (-7.0)
The Jags are slowly getting exposed for what I thought they were all along: a mediocre team that plays hard and physical. Close game.
Straight: Jacksonville
Spread: NY Jets

Oakland at San Francisco (-3.5)
Not much worth saying here. Just that Oakland is trying hard to save face and not go winless. I don't think it's going to work.
Straight: San Francisco
Spread: San Francisco (BET)

Dallas at Philadelphia (-2.5)
Everyone's on Philly's side in the TO debacle. It's hard not to be. But you know what? The good guys don't always win. My feeling is that Dallas is going to come in and fire away with a running game that catches Philly off guard.
Straight: Dallas
Spread: Dallas

Pittsburgh at San Diego (-3.5)
I like that those points are over a figgie. This game will be like last year, coming down to the final drive for a game winning field goal.
Straight: Pittsburgh
Spread: Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Denver (-3.5)
I don't like either of these teams this year. I won't bet much on them, that's for sure.
Straight: Denver
Spread: Denver

Aftermath of Week Four

I'm relieved to see my BET record bouncing back. Weeks two and three didn't shake my confidence, but they did insert a lot of doubt, I'm sure, for those of you reading this blog. Nonetheless, after going 3-0 on this week's BET picks, my record looks more respectable. And my pocketbook.

Additionally, I was 8-5 vs. the spread this week. I'm kicking myself for not making the Patriots a BET pick. I had them to beat the Broncos last week and got scared off by losing that one (because that game alone subsequently ruined my week and two parlay bets). I shouldn't have been. They always bounce back, they always look tough... just when you write them off. They're not going anywhere. As I predicted in my season picks, the Pats will win their division. Nonetheless, a betting rule ... established here and now... don't let a past burn affect your actions this week.

As for the games, it was a very fun week. How many games came down to the final play or final few minutes? How many come-from-behind victories? The Ravens, Redskins, Rams, Colts, Texans, Bills and Browns all won their games while they were still in doubt to near the final gun. What a Sunday! You can even throw in the Saints-Panthers game, where 29 of the 39 points scored in that game came in the final quarter.

After the trend of blowouts in the first three weeks, it was nice to see. Blowouts stink for everybody, except the winner.

Some random thoughts on the edge of a fun Week Four:

• Baltimore was right. McNair's a big addition. If he stays healthy, they actually can afford to have him play horribly for 57 minutes and then bounce back with one winning drive. That program works when you have a solid defense. They could win 12 like that.
• Of course, they won't be coaching against turtle-man Marty Schottenheimer every week. Think he can single-handedly kill another promising Chargers' season?
• Teams we left for dead who are by no means dead: Redskins, Chiefs, Jets and Panthers.
• Teams we thought were world-beaters that may be overachieving early: Jags, Vikings, Bengals.
• If the Bears continue playing at that high a level, they'll give the '85 Bears a run for their money.
• The Colts can win all they want in the regular season. No one will care if they can't stop the run and end up a loser in the postseason. Have we seen a team in the last ten years where it looms so large that their regular season success doesn't even feel like it counts?
• Finally, R.I.P. to my two frisky season picks. Yes, that's right, I'll admit it: I picked Tennesee and Detroit to be wildcard teams. Detroit is competitive, but they can't pull it out and they will give up on their season very soon. The Titans haven't played anyone but Miami close. The rest of their season rides with the Vince Young experience, which I'm guessing will be a successful run. They'll surprise some people as he gets his feet wet.
• Since I ripped my bad picks, I'll mention a good one. I knew Miami didn't have the guns to make the postseason. That's one bad football team right now.
• Despite that, Houston will be competitive in many games that we expect them to get blown out of.
• Watch out for the Chiefs. I still think they'll contend for the AFC West title. If Trent Green comes back healthy and soon, they're the favorites in my book. And yes, that factors in the Chargers and Broncos... the former with a shaky coach and the latter with a shaky QB.

Week Four

I'm recovering from a Root Canal, so just the picks today. I'll come back Friday with commentary and additional thoughts.

Introduction to the Picks for first-timers: Each game is listed, and the spread shows in parenthesis after the team listed as the favorite. Spreads are usually taken from usatoday.com on Tuesdays. At the end of each narrative, you'll see my selection for "Straight" and "Spread." My Straight selection is my pick of the game winner, and my Spread selection is my pick of the winner, plus or minus the points. I indicate my strongest confidence in "BET" picks. It is important to understand that I believe only the BET picks are worth truly engaging. In the final analysis, I will rate my own success or failure by my BET pick overall record. Lastly, I offer a "Suicide Pool" pick (in red) and the weekly parlay/teaser at the end of the column.


Arizona at Atlanta (-7.0)
Straight: Atlanta
Spread: Atlanta (BET)

Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee
Straight: Tennessee
Spread: Tennessee

Indianapolis (-9.0) at NY Jets
Straight: Indy
Spread: Indy

Miami (-3.5) at Houston
Straight: Houston
Spread: Houston

Minnesota at Buffalo (-1.0)
Straight: Minny
Spread: Minny

New Orleans at Carolina (-7.5)
Straight: Carolina
Spread: New Orleans

San Diego (-2.5) at Baltimore
Straight: San Diego
Spread: San Diego

San Francisco at Kansas City (-7.5)
Straight: Kansas City
Spread: San Francisco

Detroit at St. Louis (-5.5)
Straight: St. Louis
Spread: St. Louis

Cleveland (-2.5) at Oakland
Straight: Cleveland
Spread: Cleveland (BET)

Jacksonville (-3.0) at Washington
Straight: Washington
Spread: Washington (BET)

New England at Cincinnati (-6.5)
Straight: New England
Spread: New England

Seattle at Chicago (-3.5)
Straight: Chicago
Spread: Chicago

Green Bay at Philadelphia (-11.0)
Straight: Philly
Spread: Philly
Suicide Pool Pick

Week 3's Early Games

Watching those games was agonizing in the fourth quarters. My picks were blowing up in my face. The Steelers, in control and rattling Carson Palmer, fumbled twice in their own end to give up the game. The Vikings, in control all day, gave up a wide open touchdown in the final minute. And Carolina nearly lost it in the second half.

So far I'm 3-3-2 officially. But I'm thanking my lucky stars that when I made my big Vikings bets (one individual and two parlays) that I was getting 4.5 points. Nice! My week rides on the Patriots slamming the Broncos in ugly ways.

Team we may have undervalued: the Jets. Going on the road and beating the team everyone was paying notice to... that's pretty big. Could they be a sneaky 8-8 team? Chad Pennington looks solid.

And as the late games are underway, what's the story with Charlie Frye? He chooses the Ravens' defense to have his breakout game against? 15 for 18 for 210, accounts for two TD's and has Baltimore in the sack going into the second half. Wow. Not that I valued Baltimore as much as everyone else did, but still.