Week Five Picks

Last week, I had a root canal, and didn't have the energy to write much. And I had a great week, going 9-5 overall vs. the spread and 3-0 in BET picks. I'm wondering... should I just shut up and pick? I guess we'll see, because for right now I have some things to say about a very intriguing week in the NFL.

If my picks suck this week, I'll just shut up and pick. On to this week's games...

Introduction to the Picks for first-timers: Each game is listed, and the spread shows in parenthesis after the team listed as the favorite. Spreads are usually taken from usatoday.com on Tuesdays. At the end of each narrative, you'll see my selection for "Straight" and "Spread." My Straight selection is my pick of the game winner, and my Spread selection is my pick of the winner, plus or minus the points. I indicate my strongest confidence in "BET" picks. It is important to understand that I believe only the BET picks are worth truly engaging. In the final analysis, I will rate my own success or failure by my BET pick overall record. Lastly, I offer a "Suicide Pool" pick (in red) and the weekly parlay/teaser at the end of the column.

Buffalo at Chicago (-10.5)
Chicago exists right now as the front runner. Nobody in the NFL looks more impressive, it's not even close. And yet, after a big win against their only division threat and a huge statement game against the reigning NFC Champs, might this particular match up scream of let-down game?
Straight: Chicago
Spread: Buffalo (BET)

Cleveland at Carolina (-8.5)
Well, I guess splits is the strategy. It sure worked last week. Cleveland is not playing like a pushover, and Carolina is not playing like a front runner. That could change this week, but I expect this to be a touchdown game that has fourth quarter implications.
Straight: Carolina
Spread: Cleveland

Detroit at Minnesota (-6.5)
My revenge against my sleeper pick, the Lions. I won't be picking them for awhile (which, obviously means they'll start winning).
Straight: Minnesota
Spread: Minnesota

Miami at New England (-9.5)
The Patriots have a tendency to play close games, no matter the opponent. The one game that got out of hand was last week vs. the Bengals. The Pats had a late touchdown lead and it turned into a laugher when Cincy crumbled under pressure and gave up the ball a couple of times. Now, imagine a similar scenario, with Daunte Culpepper on the road. Give the points.
Straight: New England
Spread: New England (BET)

St. Louis (-2.5) at Green Bay
The Rams might get to 4-1 before we know very much about them. But I'm not sure that's going to happen. In two road games, they lost to San Fran and should have lost to Arizona. Green Bay appears to have some fight in them, and they will win this game with the first hints of cold weather creeping into Lambeau.
Straight: Green Bay
Spread: Green Bay (BET)

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-6.5)
Don't bet on this game, people. It's tempting, I know. But, consider. First time starting QB's, who are completely unknowns, can go either way. They can shine and shock everyone, or they can be dismal. Think Kurt Warner. How did his first start go? On the flip side, how did Koy Detmer's first start go? Don't remember? Neither do I.
Straight: New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-18.5)
The sheer number of points is messy. It could be a 24 point game and Indy gives up a garbage time TD with 2 mins left. Are you willing to bet on that? Neither am I.
Straight: Indianapolis
Spread: Tennessee
Suicide Pool Pick: Indy

Washington at NY Giants (-4.5)
No explanation, I'm just feelin' this one. The Skins, remember, were a popular Super Bowl pick before they mailed in the preseason and first two games.
Straight: Washington
Spread: Washington (BET)

Kansas City (-3.0) at Arizona
I try not to overthink these games. The Chiefs are the better team and the boos should be loud in that new Cardinal Stadium. It's Matt Leinart's first start. Maybe he'll shock the world, but I'm thinking the Chiefs' D frustrates him.
Straight: Kansas City
Spread: Kansas City

NY Jets at Jacksonville (-7.0)
The Jags are slowly getting exposed for what I thought they were all along: a mediocre team that plays hard and physical. Close game.
Straight: Jacksonville
Spread: NY Jets

Oakland at San Francisco (-3.5)
Not much worth saying here. Just that Oakland is trying hard to save face and not go winless. I don't think it's going to work.
Straight: San Francisco
Spread: San Francisco (BET)

Dallas at Philadelphia (-2.5)
Everyone's on Philly's side in the TO debacle. It's hard not to be. But you know what? The good guys don't always win. My feeling is that Dallas is going to come in and fire away with a running game that catches Philly off guard.
Straight: Dallas
Spread: Dallas

Pittsburgh at San Diego (-3.5)
I like that those points are over a figgie. This game will be like last year, coming down to the final drive for a game winning field goal.
Straight: Pittsburgh
Spread: Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Denver (-3.5)
I don't like either of these teams this year. I won't bet much on them, that's for sure.
Straight: Denver
Spread: Denver